Nick G tries to shut Rauru and his crap EPL picks and fantasy boasting the hell up

So Rauru’s gone through his picks.  And how boring are they? Chelsea (odds on), City (typical), Liverpool (bias), Arsenal (where else?), Man U (whatever), Everton, Tottenham, yada yada…

But what’s really going to happen?

Chelsea aint that good and they don’t have the depth required for the league.  Mourinho is their biggest draw card and even he won’t be able to turn these prima-donnas into champs.  Champions League has always been Mourinho’s thorn (he won it once at Inter only) and he’ll be after it again, incidentally sacrificing the Premier League.  They’ll finish second, maybe even tight third as they go deep into the Champions League - ultimately losing to 2014/15 Champs Bayern Munich along the way.

That’ll open it up for Man City unfortunately.  They still have the strength of squad and proven absolute quality in guys like Aguero and Silva.  Definitely have not hit their straps yet (shit, we’re only four weeks in), with Toure still sulking from post B’Day blues, but they have the only true class central defender in the league in Kompany and he’ll boss it all the way to the end of May 2015.  And do not underestimate Jovetic, Dzeko (my fave). Fernando and Nasri.

I actually think Arsenal will shake things up from their usual comfy fourth possie and take out third, challenging Chelsea for second.  They’ve recruited well with Sanchez and dear old Danny and won’t trip up as much as usual – Champs League won’t trouble them long, which is a good thing.  And do not let anyone tell you Ozil sucks.  The guy is absolute class and anyone that says otherwise is an idiot.  Ozil, in his best role centrally, as part of a front five with Sanchez, Ramsey, Walcott and Giroud/Welbeck would be the best AM in the league (along with Hazard, Toure and Di Maria).  It’s bloody Arsene’s fault he aint shining.  Nonetheless they’ll trouble the big teams and hammer the bad ones to be in the top three.

Man U will take the crucial fourth spot.  Sure, things haven’t started perfectly for them but why would you want to peak in September?  Van Gaal has now assembled an adequate squad, especially compared to the other contenders, and with Strootman on his way in January, defenders coming back from injury shortly and no Champions League to distract, it’ll end up being more of a question whether they get third than fifth (or lower).  Don’t let others tell you the defenders aint up to it – a back four of Shaw, Rojo, Jones and Rafael is as good as anyone in the league and that’s with a backup back four of Blind, Smalling, Evans and Valencia.  It’s all G.  Oh and here’s a wee graphic for you – check out that front 5 (along with attacking wing backs)!

Sorry, where was I?  Oh into the insignificant positions.  Well, I won’t sit on the fence with sixth – Everton will take that.  Martinez has shown what he can do over a season with a settled squad, plus he has a bit more depth this year so will threaten those top spots a little more.  

Tottenham have started well, and again have a quality manager but the Premier League’s a long season so I doubt they’ll seriously threaten the top four.

Outside of that I reckon we’ve got Stoke grinding it out (cliché number one) along with Hull and surprise package Leicester to be in the top half.

Hrmmm, feels like I’m missing someone? Ah, ha, it’s Liverpool.  Poor old Liverpool.  Fooled by the false dawn of Suarez last year, getting them to the top four.  But without him, even genius Rodgers (seriously) won’t work the miracle that’s required to get back to the glory days of old, this season.  Wonder boy Stirling will get them close to fourth but that’ll be as good as it gets.

Final posies: Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Man U, Liverpool, Everton, Tottenham, Stoke, Hull, Leicester.

And as for Fantasy Football – as always I took a few punts early on.  Sometimes they don’t pay off, but with form now starting to show I’ve got my team sorted along with the necessary tweaks so it’s only a matter of time until @LuxGolfToursNZ goes eerily quiet. 
Happy EPLing Stallions!

EPL picks

Right, with the window well and truly closed and internationals out of the way, here are my picks for how things are going to end up at the end of the EPL season.

1st - Chelsea.  They are looking good and I said right at the beginning if Costa can score 25+ goals they are a shoe-in.  He's looking like he's going to be able to do that (barring injury) with 7 goals in 4 games already.  I think the key man is going to be Fabregas though.  He'll put it on a plate for Costa, and Costa will do what Torres couldn't.  If Costa is out it'll be interesting to see if Remy and Drogba can score the goals, which with that midfield behind them they should be able to.  Hell, Bakky would even be able to score a few with that midfield behind him ;).

2nd - Man City.  It'll be a close run thing, and I don't think there are any real weaknesses in City's team, but I think they'll slip more often than Chelsea will (as they already have).

3rd - Liverpool.  Possibly a big call with no Suarez and Sturridge somewhat injury prone, but if Sturridge can score 20 goals then they should be sweet with Sterling and Balotelli likely to chip in with at least 10-15 each as well.  Will be interesting to see how being in CL effects them, but they have a much bigger squad that should be able to cope if they can settle and gel fast enough.

4th - Arsenal.  I actually have a feeling that they may struggle this year despite all the hype around Sanchez.  Ozil sucks and isn't going to get better, and their front like strikers are a joke.  Their midfielders have always been their strength at a lot will come down to whether they can do the scoring.  I think they'll just scrape in.

5th - Man U.  I had them picked for 6th or 7th until they signed ADM, but he might just be a key.  They've made a stack of signings and depending on how well they settle into the PL will determine how well they do.  Blind, Herrera, Rojo, ADM and Falcao have meant that Mancs are getting all hot and sweaty, but their D is so terribly bad (and this is coming from a Liverpool supporter!) that if a team manages to shut down the midfield supply to their strikers, they will concede.  While their strikers have got good names I think they'll all past it and I don't pick any of them to do the damage that is needed to get them back into CL.  It'll be a close run thing but Arsenal will pip them by 3 points.

6th/7th - Everton/Tottenham in either order.  I thought that Tottenham might have pushed for a top 4 spot this year with a more settled team and a new coach who seems good, but after getting spanked by Liverpool I think it'll be same old same old.  Will have some good performances and some shockers.  Same with Everton.  I thought that they might do ok this year but they haven't started great, although have already played Chelsea and Arsenal so maybe they'll do alright.  Hard to say.

After that you'll have Swansea, Southampton, and let's throw a wild card in there and say Leicester will make top 10.

I think it's all going to be pretty close once again though.  Last year from 1st to 7th there was 22 point in it (7 from 1st to 4th).  I'll say from 1st-7th this year there'll be 15 points in it.

Thoughts?  Make your picks.

And Fantasy Premier League?  I'm smoking everyone (as per.  Last year was a blip).  Tim's win last year was a last in the year pan and he sucks this year.  Gerald looks like he might be ok again.  Aaron has already panicked and played his wildcard but like Arsenal, write him off at your peril (like how I've compared you to Arsenal Aaron?).  Nick Goodall, despite having played the game for years, still has no idea of tactics.  Everyone else?  They all enter a team, they all suck, and they all give up. ;)